Finally, after over a year of going into Sunwell on a weekly basis… This glorious shiny item dropped.
It took 69 Sunwell runs and 69 Kil’Jaeden kills for it to drop. I would like to thank my guild for the constant support every single week, there were a lot of them who helped me out over the course of these 69 weeks and I’m deeply thankful for each and everyone of them to have shown me their support this long. Thanks Vex!
Wowhead reports the droprate for this item to be 7% (1 in 14 chance), which are pretty damn good odds for a legendary to drop. But that doesn’t mean you can’t be unlucky with the random number generator. Let’s take a look at some statistics to help understand the situation better.
The chance of you getting this item if you only go to Sunwell once is 7%, but what are the chances of you seeing the item at least once if you go there 10 times? or 20 times? 50 times? 69 times? We can calculate this using some probability math:
1 – (chance to fail/total chance)^attempts = chance to suceeed in nr of attempts
1 – (93/100)^X = Y%
1 time, 7%
10 times, 51,6%
20 times, 77,6%
50 times, 97,3%
69 times, 99,3%
As you can see, it’s very statistically improbable that you’d need to go into Sunwell 69 times to see the bow drop once, but that’s just it. It’s all statistics. Every time you go in there you have the same 7% chance and it doesn’t matter how many times you do it, you’ll always have a 7% chance, every single time. But in all likelihood, you’ll see the bow drop once far before 50 attempts.
You could even say it’s quite an achievement to get the bow after such an improbable amount of attempts…
Update (22/07): My friend Harzufelt put together this video about the long and epic quest to obtain the legendary bow!
Bucket list revisited
This is my 2nd legendary and therefor also the last legendary I can obtain and earn an achievement for as a hunter (for now). My first legendary was Thunderfury, Blade of the Windseeker (click for pic).
This last legendary was quite the epic grind for me and has been pretty much the only long grind I’ve been focusing on since The Insane. This got me thinking, what else is there for me to do now, before Mists of Pandaria?… and this made me remember the bucket list for Cataclysm that I made in April. Let’s check out what that list looks like today…
That annoying Fox Kit pet from Tol Barad Peninsula that never ever drops All the Darkmoon Faire pets and mounts All the Archaeology pets and mounts Thori’dal, The Stars Fury (the legendary bow) Halion 25-man heroic Glory of the Cataclysm Raider Ragnaros heroic Glory of the Dragon Soul Raider Scourer of the Eternal Sands
Damn. I got everything! Even the new one I added after making the list in the first place (Rare camel mount from Uldum). What am I gonna do now? There’s not really any achievements to get apart from PvP achievements and I’m waiting until Mists of Pandaria before I PvP again (no minimum range, gief kthx). I suppose I could level another alt…
Maybe it’s time to try out another game for a little while, just until Mists of Pandaria is released… Steam Sale, here I come!