About a week ago the blues let us know that the way Aimed Shot was working now wasn’t intended and that they would fix the situation by nerfing Aimed Shot (Source):
We are also looking at nerfing Aimed Shot, but compensating hunters through Aspect of the Hawk.
This caused some speculations on hunter blogs, forums and even the podcast that we would probably see some other change than a straight-up Attack Power increase to Aspect of the Hawk. Some theorized a percentile Agility increase, others said that we would get a straight increase to damage such as +5% increased damage or similar. Basically, anything other than a non-scaling pre-defined number of Attack Power.
Well, unfortunately all our hopeful wishes were wrong. Here’s the new implementation (Source):
- Aimed Shot damage has been decreased to approximately 160% weapon damage (at level 80+), down from 200%.
- Aspect of the Hawk now provides around an additional 2000 attack power at level 85.
This means that Marksman gets nerfed and all three speccs gets buffed. Which means that in all likelihood Survival will be the top spec again.
Since these changes haven’t gone live on my realm yet I’m left with math to determine the change. Hooray!
First off, here’s the current formula for Aimed Shot as displayed in it’s tooltip on Wowhead.
200% ranged weapon damage plus (RAP * 0.724)+776
This formula isn’t correct and I shall prove it:
2 * avg. WP + RAP * 0.724 + 776 =
2 * 1870 + 16081 * 0.724 + 776 =
3740 + 11642,64 + 776 = 16158,64
The regular non-crit damage I get from this shot does not resemble that final number at all. I get numbers closer to twice that, but not exactly twice. I’m assuming Blizzard messed up the formula somewhere in the syntax to cause this issue. This lead me to believe the formula in actuality looked like this:
avg. WP + 2 * RAP * 0.724 + 776 =
1870 + 2 * 16081 * 0.724 + 776 =
1870 + 23285,29 + 776 = 25931,29
This closely resembles the data I’m getting from recount and femaledwarf. If we can assume that the above formula is correct then the nerf to Aimed Shot would have this effect:
1.6 (avg. WP + RAP * 0.724) + 776 =
avg. WP + 1.6 * RAP * 0.724 + 776 =
1870 + 18628,23 + 776 = 21274,23
Which is basically a ~18% nerf to Aimed Shot’s total damage.
What happens though if we add that extra 2000 RAP that Aspect of the Hawk now will provide?
avg. WP + 1.6 * (RAP + 2000) * 0.724 + 776 =
1870 + 1.6 * 18081 * 0.724 + 776 =
1870 + 20945,03 + 776 = 23591,03
Now the nerf is closer to 10% reduced damage from Aimed Shot. I’m not sure this is a big enough nerf to take Aimed Shot out of the rotation for Marksman… Further testing will give us a more accurate view of what’s going on. But for now the only thing that seems clear is that Survival will be in a very good spot (+2000 Attack Power roughly equates to +2000 dps).
Disclaimer: Keep in mind that my formulas are based on guesses and might not be correct.
I’m starting to wonder, like others, if you actually know what you are doing Blizzard…